After the read, you will learn:
Four Basic judgments on the situation in 2021
Four issues that need to pay attention
Four suggestions for countermeasures
Since the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued 5G commercial licenses, Chinese 5G commercial promotion has been promoted for one year. With the orderly deployment of the Chinese new 5G infrastructure in 2020, China has built nearly 700,000 5G base stations as of November, achieving 5G coverage in cities above the prefecture level in China. It provides the necessary support and driving environment for the development of the terminal industry. The number of terminal connections in China has exceeded 180 million.
In 2021, China will vigorously promote the development of the new 5G infrastructure. 5G terminals are the bridge connecting network infrastructure and industrial applications. The innovative development of the terminal industry is the key to large-scale commercial use of 5G.
In 2021, the proportion of 5G terminal industry commercialization will increase; the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones will continue to increase, and the brand structure will continue to consolidate; terminal 5G chip demand is strong, driving technological breakthroughs; 5G promotion and application in key vertical industries will continue to expand.
Basic judgment on the situation in 2021
(1) The commercial proportion of the 5G terminal industry is increasing
As the key platform and control center for 5G applications, 5G terminals provide a physical foundation for the integration of traditional terminal equipment and artificial intelligence, and other emerging technologies.
Breaking the dominance of mobile phone terminals in the 4G era, in 2021, 5G terminals will add robots, TVs, notebooks, industrial CPEs, car routers/hotspots, and car units in addition to smartphones, indoor and outdoor CPE, modules, hotspots, and adapters. , Cameras, encoders, and other 5G terminal forms.
According to relevant data from GSA, in January 2020, the number of 5G terminal types released globally exceeded 200 for the first time. As of the end of September, the number of terminal types had reached 444, and the number of commercial terminals had reached 222. The proportion of commercial terminal types has been increasing in the past year.
Benefiting from the priority deployment of global 5G mid-band network infrastructure, it has been announced that over 90% of 5G terminals support Sub-6GHz, and 18.9% support millimeter-wave communications.
In 2021, the 5G terminal ecological pattern will be further strengthened, and industry application terminal forms such as 5G robots, industrial CPE, and in-vehicle modules will continue to innovate and emerge and continue to expand the extension of 5G terminals.
With support for the deployment of Sub-6GHz 5G network infrastructure and the promotion of millimeter-wave band facilities, the (4G Antenna for) types of terminals that support millimeter-wave communications will increase, and the 5G full-scene terminal ecology will be further improved.
(2) The penetration rate of 5G mobile phones has accelerated, and the brand structure has continued to consolidate
In 2020, the proportion of mobile phone types in 5G terminals has been released to account for about 45%, which is the focus of the layout of 5G terminal manufacturers. With the continuous advancement of the 5G new infrastructure, the overall shipment of 5G mobile phones in China has shown an upward trend.
Affected by the new crown epidemic in early 2020, the overall smartphone market shipments have fallen sharply. With the steady progress of resumption of work and production, as of October 2020, the cumulative shipments of 5G mobile phones in the domestic market have exceeded 120 million, and the total number of new models on the market has reached 183. For each month, 5G mobile phone shipments have accounted for more than 60% for 5 consecutive months.
In terms of market structure, the Chinese 5G mobile phone terminal market has gradually matured. The market structure of 5G mobile phones with brands such as Huawei (Router antenna), Vivo, OPPO, and Xiaomi has stabilized. The four major brands have a total of 97%, and the market concentration has further increased.
In terms of price, the main 5G brand mobile phone market is 4,000 yuan and above. Huawei, Samsung, etc. layout the high-end flagship market with folding screen 5G mobile phones. As the 5G terminal industry chain matures, the Vivo and Redmi based on Dimensity 1000+ are lower the price of end models dropped to around 2,000 yuan.
In 2021, under the effective prevention and control of the new crown epidemic, full resumption of work and production, and wider deployment of 5G new infrastructure, the wave of 5G mobile phone replacement will accelerate, and Chinese 5G mobile phone shipments and proportion will further increase. The Matthew effect in the 5G mobile phone terminal market continues to deepen, and branded mobile phone manufacturers will continue to expand their advantages and increase market share;
5G mobile phone brand manufacturers will continue to compete for the mid-to-high-end flagship market with advanced technologies such as manufacturing processes and folding screens.
In terms of low-end 5G models, they will open up the low-end market at a more affordable price. The price may drop to 1,500 in exchange for profits for market space.
(3) Strong demand for terminal 5G chips drives technological breakthroughs
In 2021, with the further opening of the 5G terminal market, especially the large-scale popularization of 5G smartphones, there is a huge market demand for chips such as baseband and radiofrequency.
In order to overcome the difficulty of integration of 5G high power consumption and multi-mode multi-band, terminal baseband chips continue to develop in the direction of highly integrated Soc chips. The current mobile terminal chip manufacturing process is mainly 7nm, such as Snapdragon X60, Kirin 9000, Exynos 1080, and Apple A14 use 5nm process, TSMC, Samsung highly monopolizes the advanced process chip manufacturing market.
The 5G high-frequency band places stringent requirements on the design and manufacture of radio frequency components such as filters and power amplifiers. In particular, the characteristics of the 5G millimeter-wave band continue to promote the development and commercial use of radio frequency components.
China’s RF field research started late, and products are mostly concentrated in the 3G/4G mid-to-low-end market, benefiting from the top-level design dividends of related policies in the 5G industry and integrated circuits, and localized substitutions have emerged in the fields of RF switches, power amplifiers, and SAW and BAW filters program.
In 2021, the investment layout in the field of terminal core technology will be further deepened, and the breakthrough of 5G chip technology and the development of industrialization will promote the rapid growth of the industry.
Advanced chip manufacturing processes will continue to evolve to the 3nm/2nm node, and 5nm process technology chips are expected to be widely used. The RF chip market pattern is difficult to break in the short term. 5G chip semiconductor materials research and development and key components continue to tackle key problems, and the industrialization of mid-to-high-end 5G RF chips will accelerate.
(4) 5G promotion and application in key vertical industries will continue
In 2020, with the accelerated deployment of 5G new infrastructure across the country and the freezing of the 5G Rel-16 standard for the industrial Internet of Things uRLLC in July, the terminal application business will accelerate its expansion to various vertical industries.
Typical 5G industry applications such as 5G+8K live broadcast of the two sessions, 5G+ remote diagnosis of the new crown anti-epidemic, and 5G+ industrial Internet smart mines have been implemented. Industry applications around the three major application scenarios of 5G eMBB, uRLLC, and mMTC have been continuously explored.
In 2021, the promotion and application of 5G industries such as medical education, the Internet of Vehicles, and industrial Internet will be carried out in-depth. Based on the freezing of the eMBB 5G Rel-15 standard and the uRLLC 5G Rel-16 standard, the main focus will be on enhanced backhaul in 2021.
Network slicing and the Rel-17 standard of drones (2.4G Wifi Antenna), satellites, and car networking will accelerate the discussion and advancement. 5G+ car networking, 5G+ telemedicine, 5G+ industrial Internet, 5G+ smart city, and other industry application scenarios are fully opened, facing 5G in different industries Terminal application operation models, business models, market positioning, etc. will also be further clarified.
Four issues that need to pay attention
(1) It will take time to complete the deployment of the new 5G infrastructure
The large-scale deployment of the new 5G infrastructure provides the necessary support and driving environment for the development of the terminal industry. The deployment of 5G network infrastructure will shift from the NSA mode to the SA mode that supports uRLLC and mMTC scenarios with full coverage, high-speed and large-capacity core network, and bearer network upgrades. It still takes a long time, the investment and construction costs are huge, and the payback period is long.
The energy consumption of 5G base stations is huge, and the power consumption of a single station is about 2.5~3.5 times that of a single 4G station, and the coverage area of 5G base stations is much smaller than that of 4G base stations. Estimated by 3 times the number of 4G base stations, the power consumption of 5G base stations will reach 9 times that of 4G (4G router antenna). Telecom (module antenna) operators are facing the dual pressure of existing network power supply, supporting equipment expansion, and high electricity bills in promoting network infrastructure deployment and power distribution operation.
(2) Key core chips and component technologies need continuous research
At present, Chinese 5G chip industrialization is still immature. The preparation of semiconductor materials upstream of the industrial chain is restricted by developed countries, and the advanced chip manufacturing process technology is generally backward.
In 2021, the continuous increase in the commercial scale of 5G terminals will drive a substantial increase in the demand for core chips and key components. Key semiconductor materials, advanced process technologies, and key 5G mid-and high-frequency devices will become the top priority of Chinese industrial chain enterprises to coordinate research.
(3) The number of terminal modules is scarce, and the price remains high
At present, more than 20 suppliers around the world provide more than 60 5G modules. According to relevant statistics, the price of 5G terminal modules has dropped to around $100, but it is still close to seven times the price of 4G modules.
In addition, according to GSA statistics, 144 5G terminal types have been released worldwide. In addition to nearly half of the smartphone categories, they still include CPE, drones, TVs, notebooks, car modules, and other multi-form types. The number of module forms is 64. Only 11 models have been commercially available, and the limited number of terminal module types to choose from is also one of the reasons for their high prices.
In 2021, as the scale of 5G application fields expand and application scenarios become more abundant, reducing the price of 5G terminal modules and increasing the richness of module types will be key factors for the prosperity of the terminal ecosystem.
(4) Industry application innovation support and business exploration still need to be strengthened
The 5G terminal industry has insufficient support for application innovation. The industry application capabilities that integrate the application of 5G, AI, big data, and other new-generation information technologies are open, and the development of common platforms and the construction of related testing and certification platforms are in their infancy.
There is no unified standard for terminal application in multiple vertical industries such as education, medical care, industrial Internet, and Internet of Vehicles. The requirements for interconnection and security and privacy cannot be guaranteed. The technical and commercial feasibility needs to be further explored and verified.
In terms of commercial exploration of terminal industry applications, there are many industry-level application promotion scenarios such as 5G+ industrial Internet, and 5G+ ultra-high-definition video, but vertical industry applications such as 5G+ car networking, 5G+ smart medical and other vertical industry applications mainly focus on demonstration applications and have not yet formed enough Market influence.
In 2021, terminal application innovation support capabilities based on the three major application characteristics of 5G will accelerate and improve, and vertical industry scenarios and commercial application promotion models need to be explored.
Four suggestions for countermeasures
(1) Steadily promote the deployment of new 5G infrastructure bases and play the supporting role of bases
Give full play to the national top-level design guidance, promote telecom operators to continuously deploy 5G independent networking networks, gradually expand coverage, and promote the open sharing of social resources to 5G network facilities.
Comprehensive consideration of operators’ existing spectrum resources and technologies, spectrum characteristics, and the degree of industry chain perfection, etc., to improve the industry’s competitive environment.
At the same time, promote the development of high-frequency resources and the construction of private network facilities for different industry requirements, and continue to leverage the support of the new 5G infrastructure of the role of the foundation for the development of the (antenna for the) terminal industry.
(2) Strengthen research on key 5G core technologies and continue to promote standard layout
Increase support for basic core technology research, accelerate the iterative upgrade of advanced chip manufacturing processes, focus on promoting the development and industrialization of filters, power amplifiers, and other medium and high-frequency devices, and steadily promote Chinese 5G terminal industry.
Continue to increase 5G evolution technology innovation research and development, promote the establishment of independent intellectual property protection, continue to promote 5G terminal innovation research and development under the iterative upgrade of 5G evolution technology, and continue to enhance the competitive advantage of Chinese 5G terminal industry.
(3) Build 5G terminal service support capabilities and promote collaborative innovation in the industry chain
Encourage qualified enterprises to build common platforms such as application development environment and capability opening, and support the construction of testing and certification platforms for 5G terminal systems, equipment, services, and security, and effectively improve the service support capabilities of the terminal industry.
Gathering innovative resources to promote collaboration between the upstream and downstream of the terminal industry chain, the communications industry, and vertical industries.
Relying on the good domestic 5G industry development opportunities, support 5G terminal equipment companies to play their advantages, use market-oriented means to drive the development of core technology companies such as semiconductor materials, chip manufacturing, key components, and modules, and create a platform-based terminal industry ecosystem.
(4) Promote the innovation and popularization of 5G terminals and accelerate the promotion of industry applications
In-depth exploration and exploration of B2C end consumer needs and B2B industry application business models, promote multi-form and multi-functional 5G terminal research and development that integrate AI, VR, ultra-high-definition, and other new technologies, and enrich terminal innovation to integrate application product libraries in multiple vertical industries, and accelerate Improve the performance and application maturity of 5G terminal equipment.
Summarize and analyze the commercial development experience in the design, verification, integrated delivery, operation and maintenance, and operation of the widely developed 5G demonstration application pilot programs in China, and accelerate the promotion of 5G industry-level terminals in medical education, ultra-high-definition production and broadcasting, industrial Internet, car networking and other fields Implementation.
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